Love Island USA Week 5: Elimination
27.0 pts (24h)One-Off
KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Caleb (99%)
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, 4:18 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Caleb
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
88%
ConsensusCurrent implied probabilityCaleb 99%+27.0ptLeader of 19 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.9M
Liquidity
$1.7M
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 100.0%
Market data
Updated 23 days ago
StaleJun 27, 26, 5:25 PMJul 4, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
Amora99%
Jen81%
Jaiden99%
Sincere1%
Aniya1%
Caleb83%
Kenzie1%
KC1%
Gal90%
Tierra2%
Melanie1%
Parmida1%
Dylan1%
Corbin1%
Carl1%
99%
1%
99%
99%
99%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Caleb
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 99% | — | $1.9M | $1.7M | 23 days ago | |
 Polymarket87% match · auto | Low | 100% | — | $0 | $3.8 | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Who will be eliminated from Love Island USA? (Week 5)
0.1 ptsClosed
+0.1pt100%
+0.7pt100%
+2.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
42 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$29.8K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETRules
If Aniya is officially eliminated from Love Island USA: Season 8 Before Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Elimination includes being voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed from further contention, voluntary withdrawal, disqualification, or producer removal.
- The declaration must be made through official program broadcast, website, verified social media, or press releases.
- Multiple simultaneous eliminations count.
- Initial elimination counts even if the contestant later returns.
- Eliminations immediately reversed in the same episode don't count.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$6.1k99.0%KALSHICaleb — Yes24d ago
KALSHICaleb — Yes24d ago$2.2k99.0%KALSHICaleb — Yes24d ago
KALSHICaleb — Yes24d agoVolume trend
$1.9MJul 23d of dataJul 4
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Rules
If Aniya is officially eliminated from Love Island USA: Season 8 Before Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Elimination includes being voted off, evicted, knocked out, removed from further contention, voluntary withdrawal, disqualification, or producer removal.
- The declaration must be made through official program broadcast, website, verified social media, or press releases.
- Multiple simultaneous eliminations count.
- Initial elimination counts even if the contestant later returns.
- Eliminations immediately reversed in the same episode don't count.