Will at least 50% of scheduled flights at JFK be cancelled on October 21, 2026?
3.7 pts (24h)One-OffWeather2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 97%
Market quality
93 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$15.9K
Liquidity
$3M
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.5% / 2.9%
Spread
0.4 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jul 15, 26, 12:00 AMOct 22, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes3%
Large trades
$12.0k0.4%KALSHIYes2d ago
KALSHIYes2d agoVolume trend
$15.9kJul 273d of dataJul 29
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Rules
If the percentage of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at John F.
- Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) that are cancelled during October 21, 2026 is at least 50%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- EXCLUDED EVENTS
- “Excluded Event” means any event or circumstance arising from, or directly resulting from:
- (i) Any act of unlawful interference with civil aviation, including sabotage, unlawful seizure of aircraft, or interference with air navigation facilities or services;
- (ii) Any deliberate act or omission by any person, whether or not identified, undertaken with the purpose or reasonably foreseeable effect of disrupting operations at John F.