KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Category 2 or above 99%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
54 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$60
Liquidity
$3.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 21, 26, 6:30 PM UTCDec 2, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If Marie reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 74 mph, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Should the event occur prior to December 01, 2026, the market will expire at the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of the event.
- If Marie reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 96 mph, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Marie reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 111 mph, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Marie reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 130 mph, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Marie reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 157 mph, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Hurricane Marie category??
- Kalshi prices Category 2 or above at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Hurricane Marie category? resolve?
- Hurricane Marie category? is scheduled to resolve on December 2, 2026.
- How is Hurricane Marie category? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Marie reaches maximum sustained winds of greater than or equal to 74 mph, then the market resolves to Yes.