KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Democratic party (99%)
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, 6:36 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probabilityDemocratic party 98%
Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$5.9
Low liquidityBid / Ask
96.4% / 99.0%
Spread
2.6 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 27 days ago
StaleJan 7, 26, 1:04 AMNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
98%
2%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Democratic party
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall60% match · verified | Low | 96% | — | $0 | $21.1K | 9 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Low | 99% | — | $0 | $5.9 | 27 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
CA-04 House Election Winner
0.9 pts3mo
98%
+0.9pt2%
0%
+5 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$13K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETRules
If the House member sworn in for CA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
- See full rules for details.
- If the House member sworn in for CA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the House member sworn in for CA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
- See full rules for details.
- If the House member sworn in for CA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.