KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability70° or below 46.7%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.8K
Liquidity
$4.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
49.0% / 50.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jul 27, 26, 2:00 PMJul 29, 26, 8:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
70° or below50%
Compare venues· 70° or below
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 50% | — | $4.8K | $4.6K | 21 minutes ago | |
 PolymarketMost active86% match · auto | Medium | 40% | — | $9.8K | $29.7K | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 28?
2.0 pts6h
+3.5pt37%
+7.0pt26.9%
+1.5pt15.7%
+8 more outcomes
50 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$14.2K
24h Vol$9.8K
POLYMARKETRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 28, 2026, is less than 71° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$4.8kJul 272d of dataJul 28
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If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 28, 2026, is less than 71° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.