Current implied probability
70° to 71° 37.6%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$13.8K
Liquidity
$9.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 5.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 26, 26, 2:00 PMJul 28, 26, 8:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
74° to 75°5%
Compare venues· 70° to 71°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall86% match · auto | Medium | 48% | — | $9.9K | $25.6K | 10 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis pageMost active | Medium | 41% | — | $13.8K | $9.9K | 10 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 27?
5.0 ptsAwaiting resolution
+16.5pt47.1%
-6.5pt26.5%
-3.0pt16.7%
+8 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$12.5K
24h Vol$9.9K
POLYMARKETRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 27, 2026, is less than 68° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$13.8kJul 262d of dataJul 27
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If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 27, 2026, is less than 68° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.