Current implied probability
74° to 75° 16%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$9.4K
Liquidity
$6.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
15.0% / 16.0%
Spread
6.7%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 13, 26, 2:00 PMJul 15, 26, 8:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
74° to 75°16%
Compare venues· 76° to 77°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall86% match · auto | High | 35% | — | $18.7K | $54.3K | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | High | 26% | — | $9.4K | $6.5K | 12 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?
0.9%8h
+5.0%35%
-1.0%28%
+11.5%23%
+8 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$20.3K
24h Vol$18.7K
POLYMARKETRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 14, 2026, is less than 74° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$9.4kJul 132d of dataJul 14
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If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 14, 2026, is less than 74° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.