Current implied probability
75° or below 40%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$8.7K
Liquidity
$6.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
35.0% / 43.0%
Spread
22.9%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jul 12, 26, 2:00 PMJul 14, 26, 8:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
75° or below40%
Compare venues· 75° or below
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall86% match · auto | High | 37% | — | $62.3K | $51.6K | 9 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | Medium | 40% | — | $8.7K | $6.9K | 4 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 13?
12h
37%
27%
22%
+8 more outcomes
77 • High qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$62.3K
24h Vol$62.3K
POLYMARKETRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 13, 2026, is less than 76° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 13, 2026, is less than 76° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.