Current implied probability
76° to 77° 18%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5.7K
Liquidity
$3.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
17.0% / 18.0%
Spread
5.9%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jul 12, 26, 2:00 PMJul 14, 26, 8:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
76° to 77°18%
Compare venues· 80° to 81°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 41% | — | $5.7K | $3.6K | 13 minutes ago | |
 PolymarketMost active84% match · auto | Medium | 37% | — | $7K | $22.7K | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Seattle on July 13?
1.1%4h
-8.0%37%
+6.0%31%
+6.0%16%
+8 more outcomes
61 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$8.8K
24h Vol$7K
POLYMARKETRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at Seattle for Jul 13, 2026, is less than 76° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISEA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Seattle-Tacoma, WA" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$5.7kJul 122d of dataJul 13
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If the maximum temperature recorded at Seattle for Jul 13, 2026, is less than 76° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Data for CLISEA can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Seattle-Tacoma, WA" with Daily Climate Report selected.
- Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their reports at different frequencies.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.