Current implied probability
82° or below 14%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$4.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 14.0%
Spread
7.7%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Jul 16, 26, 2:00 PMJul 18, 26, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
82° or below14%
Compare venues· 85° to 86°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall84% match · auto | Medium | 39% | — | $24.5K | $70.1K | 20 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | Low | 28% | — | $0 | $4.8K | 20 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?
15h
39%
28%
18%
+8 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$24.5K
24h Vol$24.5K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 17, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 83°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 17, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 83-84°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 17, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 83°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for July 17, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 83-84°, then the market resolves to Yes.