Current implied probability
79° to 80° 35%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.9K
Liquidity
$2.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 5.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jul 27, 26, 2:00 PMJul 29, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
74° or below4%
Compare venues· 79° to 80°
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Gemini
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 28, 2026?
1d
36.5%
27.9%
19.3%
+3 more outcomes
46 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
GEMINI
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 28?
14h
42.2%
30.4%
12.8%
+8 more outcomes
79 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$11K
24h Vol$11K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 28, 2026, is less than 75° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 28, 2026, is between 75-76° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 28, 2026, is less than 75° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 28, 2026, is between 75-76° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.