Current implied probability
89° or below 42.3%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$12.5K
Liquidity
$9.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
46.0% / 47.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jul 26, 26, 2:00 PMJul 28, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
89° or below47%
Compare venues· 89° or below
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Gemini
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 27, 2026?
23h
44%
23.1%
19.4%
+2 more outcomes
40 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$10
24h Vol$10
GEMINI
Also available on Polymarket
Highest temperature in Chicago on July 27?
7h
29.5%
23.8%
18.1%
+8 more outcomes
80 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$32.3K
24h Vol$32.3K
POLYMARKETRules
If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 27, 2026, is less than 90° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 27, 2026, is between 90-91° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$12.5kJul 262d of dataJul 27
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If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 27, 2026, is less than 90° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 27, 2026, is between 90-91° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.