Current implied probability
95° or below 54%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$41.5K
Liquidity
$29.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
52.0% / 53.0%
Spread
1.9%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Jul 14, 26, 2:00 PMJul 16, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
95° or below54%
Volume trend
$41.5kJul 142d of dataJul 15
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If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 15, 2026, is less than 96° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded at Chicago Midway, IL for July 15, 2026, is between 96-97° according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.