Current implied probability
81° or below 84%+30.0%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$13.5K
Liquidity
$12.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
79.0% / 83.0%
Spread
5.1%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jul 14, 26, 2:00 PMJul 16, 26, 5:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
81° or below84%
Volume trend
$13.5kJul 142d of dataJul 15
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If the highest temperature recorded in Austin Bergstrom for July 15, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is less than 82°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Not all weather data is the same.
- While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the highest temperature as reported by the corresponding NWS Climatological Report (Daily) linked in the rules above.
- Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to underlying rounding and conversion nuances.
- Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS data.
- If the highest temperature recorded in Austin Bergstrom for July 15, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is between 82-83°, then the market resolves to Yes.