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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address?
What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address?

What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address?

33.0% (24h)GeopoliticsOne-Off
KalshiKalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

This market resolved: Taiwan (99%)

Resolved: May 30, 2026, 3:45 PM

Winning Outcome

Taiwan

At 7 days out

—

At 24 hours out

—

Current implied probability
Ceasefire
Ceasefire 1%-33.0%
Leader of 17 outcomes
Market quality

40 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$1.9K

Liquidity

$1.6K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

- / 100.0%

Market data

Updated 13 days ago

Stale
May 28, 26, 2:00 AMMay 30, 26, 5:05 AM

Probability Timeline

Ceasefire1%
Drone1%
Taiwan99%
Oil1%
Ukraine1%
AI / Artificial Intelligence99%
America First99%
Russia / Russian1%
Venezuela99%
Nuclear99%
Terrorist / Terrorism99%
Lethal99%
NATO99%
Trump (3+ times)99%
National Security99%
Event does not qualify1%
China / Chinese99%
0%25%50%75%100%May 30May 30May 30
Outcome24hChance
Ceasefire
Ceasefire
-33.0%
1%
Drone
Drone
-62.0%
1%
Taiwan
Taiwan
+30.0%
99%
Oil
Oil
-32.0%
1%
Ukraine
Ukraine
-24.0%
1%
AI / Artificial Intelligence
AI / Artificial Intelligence
+38.0%
99%

This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.

Rules

If a qualifying event does not occur, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Video of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 will be used.
  • Payout Criterion: The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
  • Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
  • Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
  • For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$63,901.32+0.13%EthereumETH$1,677.09+0.12%SolanaSOL$67.80+1.19%DogecoinDOGE$0.0878+1.08%XRPXRP$1.15+0.46%BNBBNB$606.02-0.26%

Related News

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsPentagon adds Alibaba, Baidu and BYD to China’s military-linked list Crypto NewsNo-win bets keep Iran regime change odds high as market eyes 2027Blockchain.NewsMajor cryptocurrencies under pressure as oil jumps 3%CoindeskBitcoin recedes to $63,000 as Iran-Israel trade strikes and Korean stocks crashCoindeskYear-end odds on Israel–Indonesia ties shift in PolymarketBlockchain.News

Rules

If a qualifying event does not occur, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Video of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 will be used.
  • Payout Criterion: The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
  • Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
  • Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
  • For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.