KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityTadej Pogacar 60%-8.0%Leader of 100 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$529.7
Liquidity
$3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
60.0% / 64.0%
Spread
6.7%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jul 7, 26, 1:00 AMAug 9, 26, 5:50 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Tadej Pogacar60%
Compare venues· Jonas Vingegaard
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 0% | -45pt | $529.7 | $3K | 17 minutes ago | |
 PolymarketMost active62% match · auto | Medium | 45% | 0pt | $838.4 | $5.3K | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Tour De France 2026: Polka Dot Jersey
6.5%19d
-6.5%62%
50%
50%
+110 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.6K
24h Vol$838.4
POLYMARKETRules
If Liam Slock wins the polka dot jersey at the 2026 Tour de France, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If || Participant || does not start, withdraws mid-race, is disqualified at any point, or fails to officially complete the race for any reason, then the market for that resolves to No.
- The polka dot jersey is awarded to the leader of the mountains classification (often called the 'King of the Mountains').
- It is determined by a points system based on how quickly riders reach the summits of designated, categorized climbs during the race.
- If two or more cyclists are tied at the end of the entire competition, the market will resolve according to the Governing Body's official tie-breaking rules.
- If after all tie-breaks are exhausted they are still tied, then payouts will be as follows: - Yes payout: $1/N, rounded down to the nearest cent (N = number of tied participants) - No payout: $1 minus the Yes payout
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$530Jul 814d of dataJul 21
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If Liam Slock wins the polka dot jersey at the 2026 Tour de France, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If || Participant || does not start, withdraws mid-race, is disqualified at any point, or fails to officially complete the race for any reason, then the market for that resolves to No.
- The polka dot jersey is awarded to the leader of the mountains classification (often called the 'King of the Mountains').
- It is determined by a points system based on how quickly riders reach the summits of designated, categorized climbs during the race.
- If two or more cyclists are tied at the end of the entire competition, the market will resolve according to the Governing Body's official tie-breaking rules.
- If after all tie-breaks are exhausted they are still tied, then payouts will be as follows: - Yes payout: $1/N, rounded down to the nearest cent (N = number of tied participants) - No payout: $1 minus the Yes payout