KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityMads Pedersen 86%+6.0%Leader of 100 outcomes
Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.5K
Liquidity
$6.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
85.0% / 89.0%
Spread
4.7%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jul 6, 26, 9:30 PMAug 9, 26, 5:50 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Mads Pedersen86%
Compare venues· Mads Pedersen
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall68% match · auto | High | 88% | 0pt | $6.6K | $22.5K | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Medium | 86% | -2pt | $1.5K | $6.3K | 18 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Tour De France 2026: Green Jersey
7.5%19d
+7.5%88%
50%
50%
+119 more outcomes
88 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$11.3K
24h Vol$6.6K
POLYMARKETRules
If Liam Slock wins the green Jersey at the 2026 Tour de France, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If || Participant || does not start, withdraws mid-race, is disqualified at any point, or fails to officially complete the race for any reason, then the market for that resolves to No.
- The green jersey is awarded to the cyclist who is the leader of the points classification.
- If two or more cyclists are tied in points at the end of the entire competition, the market will resolve according to the Governing Body's official tie-breaking rules.
- If after all tie-breaks are exhausted they are still tied, then payouts will be as follows:- Yes payout: $1/N, rounded down to the nearest cent (N = number of tied participants)- No payout: $1 minus the Yes payout
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.5kJul 715d of dataJul 21
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If Liam Slock wins the green Jersey at the 2026 Tour de France, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If || Participant || does not start, withdraws mid-race, is disqualified at any point, or fails to officially complete the race for any reason, then the market for that resolves to No.
- The green jersey is awarded to the cyclist who is the leader of the points classification.
- If two or more cyclists are tied in points at the end of the entire competition, the market will resolve according to the Governing Body's official tie-breaking rules.
- If after all tie-breaks are exhausted they are still tied, then payouts will be as follows:- Yes payout: $1/N, rounded down to the nearest cent (N = number of tied participants)- No payout: $1 minus the Yes payout
- Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League.