PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityMads Pedersen 86%+6.0%Leader of 122 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$8.2K
Liquidity
$33K
High liquidityBid / Ask
85.0% / 86.0%
Spread
1.2%
Tight spread7d Change
+17.5%
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 2, 26, 10:32 PMAug 9, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Mads Pedersen86%
Compare venues· Mads Pedersen
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 86% | 0pt | $8.2K | $33K | 10 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi68% match · auto | Medium | 85% | -1pt | $2.8K | $7.3K | 10 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Tour de France: Green Jersey Winner
5.0%18d
+5.0%85%
15%
-21.0%4%
+97 more outcomes
68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$9.8K
24h Vol$2.8K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Green Jersey for the 2026 Tour De France.
- In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by UCI rules.
- If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
- If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$8.2kJul 418d of dataJul 21
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This market will resolve to the player who wins the Green Jersey for the 2026 Tour De France.
- In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by UCI rules.
- If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
- If the 2026 Tour De France is cancelled, postponed after August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UCI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.