KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityHike more than 50bps 4%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 4.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 9:15 PMSep 11, 26, 10:29 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Hike more than 50bps4%
Compare venues· Hike more than 50bps
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall87% match · auto | Medium | 71% | — | $2K | $40.7K | 11 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Low | 4% | — | $0 | $2 | 11 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Bank of Russia decision in September?
1mo
+1.5pt69.6%
-3.0pt27.4%
2.9%
70 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$42.3K
24h Vol$2K
POLYMARKETRules
If the Bank of Russia takes the action of Cut more than 50bps at September Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank.
- For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No.
- Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
- The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2Jul 252d of dataJul 26
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If the Bank of Russia takes the action of Cut more than 50bps at September Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank.
- For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No.
- Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
- The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).