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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI capability growth before July?
AI capability growth before July?

AI capability growth before July?

16.0% (24h)One-Off20d
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
At least 1525 score
At least 1525 score 7%-16.0%
Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$134.9

Liquidity

$1.1K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

6.0% / 7.0%

Spread

16.7%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Jan 6, 26, 3:00 PMJul 1, 26, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

At least 1525 score7%

Rules

If an AI model has a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,864.79+2.49%EthereumETH$1,657.08+1.97%SolanaSOL$65.45+2.97%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.66%XRPXRP$1.12+0.91%BNBBNB$599.68+2.50%

Rules

If an AI model has a score of at least 1525 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1550 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1575 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1625 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If an AI model has a score of at least 1650 before Jul 1, 2026 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.