GeminiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Miami wins by more than 1.5 points (95%)
Resolved: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 AM
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Data as of Oct 18, 2026, 2:55 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Miami wins by more than 1.5 points95%
Miami wins by more than 2.5 points88.5%
Miami wins by more than 5.5 points85%
Miami wins by more than 10.5 points72.5%
Miami wins by more than 17.5 points57.5%
Miami wins by more than 23.5 points42.5%
Miami wins by more than 14.5 points63%
Miami wins by more than 16.5 points61%
Miami wins by more than 27.5 points31.5%
Miami wins by more than 21.5 points46.5%
Miami wins by more than 20.5 points49%
Miami wins by more than 3.5 points96%
Miami wins by more than 4.5 points74%
Miami wins by more than 7.5 points84%
Miami wins by more than 6.5 points81%
Florida State wins by more than 4.5 points34%
Miami wins by more than 3.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 1.5 pointsWon
Miami wins by more than 2.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 5.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 7.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 6.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 4.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 23.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 21.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 10.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 11.5 pointsLost
Florida State wins by more than 4.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 27.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 16.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 14.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 13.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 20.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 9.5 pointsLost
Miami wins by more than 17.5 pointsLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
What will the point difference be?
- This market resolves to Yes if the score differential recorded in favor of Miami (FL) in the entire college football game between Florida State and Miami scheduled for 2026-10-17 at 3:00 p.m. CT is above 1.5.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No. The Underlying is the score differential (Miami (FL)'s score minus Miami's score) for the specified game.
- Source Agencies, in order, are the league governing the event (NCAAF), ESPN, Fox Sports, and the official broadcast partner of the event.
- If the Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date (including because the event is cancelled or a team forfeits, withdraws, or is disqualified), the Exchange may determine payouts pursuant to the Market Outcome Review Process.
- View the [full rules](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Terms_and_Conditions_NCAA_CFB_Spread_Class_941e2dcb-07e0-4ee4-9d21-bdd1a7612f13.pdf).