Vergleich von Prognosequellen
Vergleiche passende Prognosefragen zwischen Handelsmärkten und Forecast-Quellen. Sieh, wo Wahrscheinlichkeiten übereinstimmen, abweichen und wie sich die Methodik unterscheidet.
#1 searched person on Google in 2026
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Erfasste Ergebnisdifferenz: Bad Bunny 4 Pkt.
| Ergebnis |  Kalshi#1 searched person on Google in 2026 Reported open Datenstand: Listed end |  Polymarket+1#1 Searched Person on Google 2026? Reported open Datenstand: Listed end |  Manifold Markets#1 searched person on Google in 2026 Reported open Datenstand: Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | — | — | 41% |
| Lindsay Clancy | — | 24% | — |
| Erling Haaland | 16% | 17% | 18% |
| Bad Bunny | 14% | 10% | 13% |
| Donald Trump | 6% | 5% | 6% |
| Alysa Liu | — | 5% | — |
| Plattformqualität | 741010,7 € | 81543,4 € |
Also on Polymarket: #2 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm-ReferenzDemocratic Party68%1 Pkt. Venue-SpanneErfasste Ergebnisdifferenz: Republican Party 4 Pkt.Pair history: 3 recorded days ≥5pt
| Ergebnis | CoinRithm-Referenz | Kalshi Who will hold more governorships after the midterms? Reported open Datenstand: Listed end | Polymarket Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms? Reported open Datenstand: Listed end | Manifold Markets Who will hold more governorships after the midterms? Reported open Datenstand: Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 68% | 68% | 67% | 71% |
| Republican Party | — | 27% | 23% | 21% |
| Tie | — | 11% | 11% | 9% |
| Plattformqualität | 2 Plattformen | 721007,4 € | 6144,5 € |
Tottenham vs Coventry
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm-ReferenzTottenham65%0 Pkt. Venue-SpanneErfasste Ergebnisdifferenz: Coventry 2 Pkt.
| Ergebnis | CoinRithm-Referenz | Kalshi Tottenham vs Coventry Reported open Datenstand: Listed end | Polymarket Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC Reported open Datenstand: Listed end |  GeminiCoventry vs Tottenham Reported open Datenstand: Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 65% | 65% | 66% | — |
| Tottenham | — | 65% | — | 65% |
| Tie | — | 21% | 21% | — |
| Tie | — | 21% | — | 20% |
| Coventry | — | 16% | 14% | 15% |
| Plattformqualität | 2 Plattformen | 755207,4 € | 77261 € | 490 € |
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Erfasste Ergebnisdifferenz: Lamine Yamal 1 Pkt.
| Ergebnis | Polymarket Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 Reported open Datenstand: Listed end | Manifold Markets+4 Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? 🏆⚽ Reported open Datenstand: Listed end | Kalshi Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? Reported open Datenstand: Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 63% | 63% | 65% |
| Lamine Yamal | 28% | 29% | 29% |
| Lionel Messi | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 4% | — | 4% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 4% | 4% | — |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0% | — | 1% |
| Plattformqualität | 89503.121,6 € | 74190.475,3 € |
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm-ReferenzNewcastle43%1 Pkt. Venue-SpanneErfasste Ergebnisdifferenz: Newcastle 1 Pkt.
| Ergebnis | CoinRithm-Referenz | Kalshi Newcastle vs Aston Villa Reported open Datenstand: Listed end | Polymarket Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC Reported open Datenstand: Listed end | Gemini Aston Villa vs Newcastle Reported open Datenstand: Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 43% | 43% | 42% | — |
| Newcastle | — | 43% | — | 43% |
| Aston Villa | — | 33% | 33% | — |
| Aston Villa | — | 33% | — | 32% |
| Tie | — | 26% | 26% | — |
| Tie | — | 26% | — | 26% |
| Plattformqualität | 2 Plattformen | 745514,6 € | 811942,6 € | 490 € |
NC-11 House winner?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
CoinRithm-ReferenzJamie Ager (D)78%1 Pkt. Venue-SpanneErfasste Ergebnisdifferenz: Jamie Ager 1 Pkt.
| Ergebnis | CoinRithm-Referenz | Kalshi NC-11 House winner? Reported open Datenstand: Listed end | Polymarket NC-11 House Election Winner Reported open Datenstand: Listed end | Manifold Markets NC-11 House winner? Reported open Datenstand: Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Ager | — | 78% | 77% | 76% |
| Jennifer Balkcom | — | 24% | 25% | 25% |
| Plattformqualität | 2 Plattformen | 78996,1 € | 6919,5 € |
Final: Spain vs Argentina
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Includes closed markets — historical prices
| Ergebnis | Kalshi Final: Spain vs Argentina Closed market Datenstand: Listed end | Polymarket World Cup Winner Closed market Datenstand: Listed end | Manifold Markets+3 2026 FIFA World Cup ⚽ | 🏆 Winner Closed market Datenstand: Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 99% | 100% | 100% |
| Argentina | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Congo DR | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Iraq | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Czechia | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1% | — | 0% |
| Plattformqualität | 49242,5 Mio. € | 4923 Mio. € |
Cincinnati vs Milwaukee
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Includes closed markets — historical prices
| Ergebnis | Gemini Cincinnati vs Milwaukee Closed market Datenstand: Listed end | Kalshi+1 Cincinnati vs Milwaukee Closed market Datenstand: Listed end | Polymarket Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Closed market Datenstand: Listed end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers — Yes | — | — | 100% |
| Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | — | — | 100% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Full game — Over 8.5 total runs | — | — | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | — | — | 100% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings — Over 2.5 total runs | — | — | 100% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings — Over 3.5 total runs | — | — | 100% |
| Plattformqualität | 499281,9 € | 491,9 Mio. € | 49167.994,5 € |
Also on Kalshi: Cincinnati vs Milwaukee
How many launches will SpaceX have in October?
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
| Ergebnis | Kalshi How many launches will SpaceX have in October? Reported open Datenstand: Listed end | Manifold Markets How many launches will SpaceX have in October? Reported open Datenstand: Listed end |
|---|---|---|
| Above 6 | 99% | — |
| Above 8 | 97% | 98% |
| Above 7 | 98% | — |
| Above 9 | 95% | 94% |
| Above 10 | 67% | 70% |
| Above 11 | 17% | 13% |
| Plattformqualität | 627159,1 € |
Colorado vs Detroit
Recorded snapshots may come from different times. Matching outcome labels do not verify identical contract rules or a trading opportunity.
Includes closed markets — historical prices
| Ergebnis | Gemini Colorado vs Detroit Closed market Datenstand: Listed end | Kalshi+1 Colorado vs Detroit Closed market Datenstand: Listed end |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit | 99% | 99% |
| Colorado | 2% | 1% |
| Plattformqualität | 497113,6 € | 492,2 Mio. € |
Also on Kalshi: Colorado vs Detroit
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Weiterführende Artikel
- Wie Prognosemarkt-Wahrscheinlichkeiten funktionieren (2026): Preise, Quoten und was sie wirklich bedeuten
- Kalshi vs Polymarket (2026): Gebuehren, Zugang, Liquiditaet und welche Plattform besser passt
- Prognosemarkt-Gebührenvergleich (2026): Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, PredictIt und mehr
- Beste Prognosemärkte 2026: 17 Plattformen im Vergleich (Regulierung, Gebühren, Zugang und für wen)
Häufige Fragen
Wie unterscheiden sich Prediction-Market-Quoten zwischen Plattformen?
Dasselbe Ereignis kann auf Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless und anderen Plattformen zu unterschiedlichen Wahrscheinlichkeiten gehandelt werden, da jeder Markt eigene Händler, Liquidität und Gebühren hat. CoinRithm verknüpft passende Markets, sodass Sie die Quoten direkt vergleichen und sehen können, wo sich die Plattformen unterscheiden.
Welche Prediction-Market-Plattform bietet die besten Quoten?
Es gibt keine einheitlich beste Plattform. Quoten variieren je nach Ereignis und ändern sich laufend. CoinRithm zeigt deshalb die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit für dasselbe Ergebnis auf jeder Plattform, damit Sie den günstigsten Preis für einen bestimmten Markt finden.
Was ist Prediction-Market-Divergenz?
Divergenz ist die Lücke zwischen den Wahrscheinlichkeiten, die verschiedene Plattformen demselben Ergebnis zuweisen. Eine große Lücke kann auf unterschiedliche Informationen, Liquidität oder Fehlbepreisung hinweisen. CoinRithm rankt Markets nach Divergenz, um die größten Meinungsverschiedenheiten zwischen den Quellen sichtbar zu machen.
Wie vergleicht CoinRithm Polymarket und Kalshi?
CoinRithm gleicht äquivalente Polymarket- und Kalshi-Markets ab und zeigt deren Live-Quoten, Volumen und die Wahrscheinlichkeitslücke zwischen ihnen, zusammen mit Gebühren, Abrechnung und Verfügbarkeit, damit Sie sowohl den Preis als auch die Plattform vergleichen können.
Ist der Plattformvergleich auf CoinRithm kostenlos?
Ja. Der plattformübergreifende Vergleich, Live-Quoten und Divergenzdaten auf CoinRithm sind kostenlos zugänglich. CoinRithm ist eine Recherche- und Paper-Trading-Plattform, kein Broker.