Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
3.5% (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffMiddle East5T
PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit40+ 100%+18.1%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Marktqualitat
89 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
30.818,3 €
Liquidität
205.054,6 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
12.1% / 13.0%
Spread
7.4%
Mittlerer Spread7d-Änderung
-0.8%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Minuten
26. Juni 26, 21:0131. Juli 26, 23:59
Trends
100%
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
30+13%
Plattformen vergleichen· 40+
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Hoch | 100% | — | 30.818,3 € | 205.054,6 € | vor 18 Minuten | |
| Polymarket82% Übereinstimmung · verknüpft | Mittel | 100% | — | 7413 € | 0 € | vor 17 Tagen | Öffnen → |
 Manifold Markets85% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | — | 100% | — | — | — | vor 15 Tagen | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? [Polymarket]
Geschlossen
Aufgelöst
40+ (100%)
100%
0%
0%
Community-Prognose17 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAuch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
2.1%Geschlossen
Aufgelöst
20-40 (100%)
+2.1%100%
0%
-0.3%0%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
72 • Mittlere QualitätEnger SpreadNiedrige Liquidität
Gesamtvolumen631.831,7 €
24h-Volumen7413 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Große Trades
$5.4k96.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205vorgestern
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205vorgestern$1.4k98.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyvor 7 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyvor 7 Tagen$2.6k51.8%POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profitvor 12 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profitvor 12 Tagen$8.6k85.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205vor 18 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205vor 18 Tagen$3.5k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday77vor 19 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday77vor 19 Tagen$2.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a495vor 19 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a495vor 19 Tagen$3.9k88.5%POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyvor 21 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyvor 21 Tagen$1.4k95.6%POLYMARKETNoJasonPunosvor 25 Tagen
POLYMARKETNoJasonPunosvor 25 TagenVolumentrend
$35.1k2. Juli25T Daten26. Juli
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized.