PolymarketGeschlossenVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertDieser Markt wurde entschieden: 20-40 (100%)
Nicht verifizierte Auflösungsdaten
Dieses Ergebnis ist abgeleitet oder nicht durch anbietergestützte Auflösungsnachweise gedeckt.
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit20-40 100%+2.1%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Marktqualitat
72 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
7413,6 €
Liquidität
0 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1%
Enger Spread7d-Änderung
+16.4%
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Tagen
Veraltet1. Juni 26, 0:2730. Juni 26, 16:00
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
10-200%
20-40100%
40-601%
60+0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Dieser Markt ist geschlossen. Demo-Trading ist nur bei offenen Märkten verfügbar.
Plattformen vergleichen· 20-40
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketBeste insgesamt82% Übereinstimmung · verknüpft | Mittel | 100% | — | 39.959,3 € | 214.981,8 € | vor 5 Minuten | Öffnen → |
| PolymarketDiese Seite | Mittel | 100% | — | 7413,6 € | 0 € | vor 18 Tagen | |
 Manifold Markets82% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | — | 100% | — | — | — | vor 15 Tagen | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? [Polymarket]
Geschlossen
Aufgelöst
40+ (100%)
100%
0%
0%
Community-Prognose17 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAuch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
3.7%5T
+18.1%100%
+8.3%17%
+3.7%8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung
Gesamtvolumen1,2 Mio. €
24h-Volumen39.959,3 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Große Trades
$5.4k96.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205vorgestern
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205vorgestern$1.4k98.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyvor 7 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyvor 7 Tagen$2.6k51.8%POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profitvor 12 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoValid-Profitvor 12 Tagen$8.6k85.0%POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205vor 18 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoMoonLambo1205vor 18 Tagen$3.5k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday77vor 19 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — YesDoomsday77vor 19 Tagen$2.7k99.9%POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a495vor 19 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — Yes0xd677…a495vor 19 Tagen$3.9k88.5%POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyvor 21 Tagen
POLYMARKETWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — NoArmageddonRewardsBillyvor 21 Tagen$1.4k95.6%POLYMARKETNoJasonPunosvor 25 Tagen
POLYMARKETNoJasonPunosvor 25 TagenVolumentrend
$8.4k2. Juli7T Daten8. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
2,1 Mio. €July 18: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
705.692,7 €August 31: 64%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
578.747,2 €Ja: 22%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
245.885,6 €Before Sep 1, 2026: 11%
KALSHI
KALSHI
What will Benjamin Netanyahu say during Sunday Morning Futures?
106.575,9 €Event does not qualify: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)
35.025,8 €Above 50: 42%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
Verwandte Nachrichten
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot jumps to 46% to lead Israel PM raceBlockchain.News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.NewsPolymarket sees 55.5% odds for Iran blockade end by Aug. 31 after Trump jabBlockchain.News
US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto as Middle East tensions riseCointelegraphRegeln
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized.