Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
5.7 Pkt. (24h)One-OffPolitikEuropeCrime & JusticeWahl
PolymarketGeschlossenVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertDieser Markt wurde entschieden: Yes
Entschieden: 09.07.2026, 03:35
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Gewinnausgang
Yes
7 Tage vorher
20%
24 Stunden vorher
94%
KonsensAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja 100%+0.1pt
Marktqualitat
45 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
2919,3 €
Liquidität
—
Liquidität unbekanntGeld / Brief
97.6% / 100.0%
Spread
2.4 pt
Mittlerer Spread7d-Änderung
+80.8 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 53 Tagen
Veraltet19. Jan. 26, 20:2131. März 26, 0:00
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Regeln
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race.
- The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12.
- You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings.
