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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Trade Policy
  3. US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

One-OffTrade PolicyChina6Mon
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 75%
Marktqualitat

68 / 100

Mittlere Qualität
24h-Volumen

247 €

Liquidität

12.430,5 €

Mittlere Liquidität
Geld / Brief

73.0% / 77.0%

Spread

5.5%

Mittlerer Spread
7d-Änderung

+4.0%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten

29. Mai 26, 13:2231. Dez. 26, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes75%

Regeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
  • Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
  • The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
  • Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

Makro-Sensible Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,667.07+2.15%EthereumETH$1,649.01+1.30%SolanaSOL$65.01+1.40%

Verwandte Märkte

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

891,5 €
Ja: 1%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?

US x China tariff agreement by June 30?

477,7 €
Ja: 5%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

177,9 €
Ja: 4%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
What will the US tariff rate on India be on July 1?

What will the US tariff rate on India be on July 1?

1,3 €
Below 10%: 18%KalshiKALSHI
What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

0,3 €
Between 10% and 19.99%: 81%KalshiKALSHI
What will the US tariff rate on Canada be on July 1?

What will the US tariff rate on Canada be on July 1?

0,1 €
Below 10%: 19%KalshiKALSHI

In diesen Themen aktiv

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Regeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
  • Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
  • The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
  • Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.