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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?
Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?

Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?

Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsChina7Mon
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 0%
Marktqualitat

24 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

0 €

Liquidität

0 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

79.0% / 86.0%

Spread

8.9%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten

3. Juni 26, 23:304. Feb. 27, 13:29

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja
0%
Nein
Nein
100%

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes0%

Regeln

If the the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S.
  • Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table.
  • For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China
  • The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion.
  • The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion.

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What will the US tariff rate on India be on July 1?

What will the US tariff rate on India be on July 1?

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What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

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Between 10% and 19.99%: 81%KalshiKALSHI

In diesen Themen aktiv

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Regeln

If the the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S.
  • Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table.
  • For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China
  • The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion.
  • The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion.