Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
121-124 28.7%Führend unter 7 OptionenMargenbereinigt: Die Rohquoten summierten sich auf über 100 % und wurden normalisiert.
Marktqualitat
51 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
17,2 €
Liquidität
22.335,7 €
Hohe LiquiditätSpread
4.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
-12.5 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
19. Aug. 26, 19:53 UTC12. Okt. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?
PolymarketUnion Centriste Seat Count after French Senate Election?
PolymarketNational Rally Group Seat Count after French Senate Election?
PolymarketDemocratic Senate Seat Count (2028)
KalshiWill the French United Left primary be canceled?
KalshiWill another French PM be appointed by the end of 2026?
FutuurRegeln
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats.
- The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST.
- This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Les Républicains as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST.
- The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés).
- A group will qualify as the Groupe Les Républicains if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes "Les Républicains" or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Les Républicains, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above.