Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Geopolitik
PolymarketGeschlossenVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertDieser Markt ist geschlossen und wartet auf eine bestätigte Auflösung.
Nicht verifizierte Auflösungsdaten
Dieses Ergebnis ist abgeleitet oder nicht durch anbietergestützte Auflösungsnachweise gedeckt.
Aktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitDecember 31 100%+2.0ptFührend unter 9 Optionen
Marktqualitat
49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
20,2 Mio. €
Liquidität
4,9 Mio. €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Enger Spread7d-Änderung
+9.7 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 94 Tagen
Veraltet28. Feb. 26, 14:4031. März 26, 0:00
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
December 3199%
April 3096%
April 15100%
June 30100%
May 15100%
April 7100%
March 70%
March 150%
March 310%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Dieser Markt ist geschlossen. Demo-Trading ist nur bei offenen Märkten verfügbar.
Plattformen vergleichen· December 31
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Niedrig | 100% | — | 20,2 Mio. € | 4,9 Mio. € | vor 94 Tagen | |
 Manifold Markets80% Übereinstimmung · auto | — | 100% | — | — | — | vor 96 Tagen | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by which date?
Geschlossen
100%
100%
100%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
Community-Prognose34 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
- A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
- Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Verwandte Märkte
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by which date?
2,4 Mio. €July 31: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
670.756,7 €July 18: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
526.020,4 €August 31: 72%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
17.158,4 €Before Aug 1, 2026: 0%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
14.461,8 €Vladimir Putin: 12%KALSHI
KALSHI
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
8818,2 €Barack Obama: 6%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
Verwandte Nachrichten
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threatBlockchain.News
US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto as Middle East tensions riseCointelegraphRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
- A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
- Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.