How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
9.9 Pkt. (24h)PolitikOne-OffUS PoliticsWahl
PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätKeine aktiven Kurse
Daten vom 27.07.2026, 16:40 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit4-6 79%+0.3ptFührend unter 6 Optionen
Marktqualitat
34 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
0 €
Liquidität
9442,2 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
2.7% / 40.8%
Spread
38.1 pt
Breiter Spread7d-Änderung
+4.6 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 20 Minuten
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
4-679%
Plattformen vergleichen· 3
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBeste insgesamt80% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Mittel | 24% | 0pt | 1264,1 € | 177.670,4 € | vor 20 Minuten | Öffnen → |
| PolymarketDiese Seite | Niedrig | 79% | +55pt | 0 € | 9442,2 € | vor 20 Minuten |
Auch verfügbar auf Kalshi
How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
2.0 pts3Mon
-1.0pt67%
-2.0pt24%
-1.9pt2%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
62 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen377.757,6 €
24h-Volumen1264,1 €
KALSHIRegeln
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$633. Juli19T Daten27. Juli
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.