Will "Why Software Automation Is Hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffSociety & CultureTechnik1JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 87%
Prognostiker
1
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet8. Juni 26, 08:04 UTC1. Feb. 28, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketLeague City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?
PolymarketWill "Dario probably doesn't believe in superintell..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Why Software Automation Is Hard is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Offene Märkte
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt30.3%
- <40-5.5pt12.1%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28.855,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 25.306,6 €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6760,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5772,3 €
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane95%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Tariff86%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6133 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5231,4 €
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 18.129,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 989,4 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15.357,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 952,4 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 136.182,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 247 €
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will "Why Software Automation Is Hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 87% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will "Why Software Automation Is Hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? entschieden?
- Will "Why Software Automation Is Hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will "Why Software Automation Is Hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.