Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 98%
Prognostiker
24
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert8. Nov. 24, 00:33 UTC20. Aug. 28, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsWill Trump’s second presidential term NOT end exactly on January 20, 2029, due to war, emergency, impeachment, or other
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Bongbong Marcos declare martial law in his first presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?
PolymarketLula to finish his presidential term?
FutuurRegeln
Resolution Criteria:
- TL;DR, will Trump be POTUS for ≥42 months and <43 months? Most of these criteria points are covering the corner cases.
- If I missed a corner case, and it happens, market resolves to best judgement.
- Struck-through items are no longer relevant and can be ignored.
- Assume EST time zones for all dates and times. "Exactly 42 months" is defined as the market window from Jul 20, 2028 to Aug 19, 2028, conservatively allowing until 11:59pm on the last day.
- If the inauguration is somehow delayed past Jan 20, 2025 by any number "n" days, shift these dates forward by n days.
