Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 98%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet8. Nov. 24, 00:33 UTC20. Aug. 28, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
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PolymarketWill Peter Hegseth be impeached during Trump's second presidential term?
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FutuurRegeln
Resolution Criteria:
- TL;DR, will Trump be POTUS for ≥42 months and <43 months? Most of these criteria points are covering the corner cases.
- If I missed a corner case, and it happens, market resolves to best judgement.
- Struck-through items are no longer relevant and can be ignored.
- Assume EST time zones for all dates and times. "Exactly 42 months" is defined as the market window from Jul 20, 2028 to Aug 19, 2028, conservatively allowing until 11:59pm on the last day.
- If the inauguration is somehow delayed past Jan 20, 2025 by any number "n" days, shift these dates forward by n days.
Offene Märkte
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- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 98% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months? entschieden?
- Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months? soll am 20. August 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution Criteria: