Will Trump make a statement supporting mainland China over Taiwan during his term?
US-PolitikOne-OffChina2J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 05:51 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 58.5%
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert23. Feb. 25, 01:05 UTC21. Jan. 29, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?
Manifold MarketsIf Hasanabi ever gets divorced will he make a statement partially blaming Israel/Zionists?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before...interference with Taiwan?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump make IVF free?
KalshiChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
Calling Taiwan a “renegade province” or “rebellious” or saying they are responsible for the ongoing conflict or any escalation thereof for any reason counts.
- Saying he wants to make a deal whereby Taiwan and China will be united into a Big Beautiful country would count as it is the pro-China stance on the conflict under any reasonable understanding.
- Merely threatening or promising not to defend Taiwan, e.g. because of their relatively low commitment to defense spending or lack of trade concessions would not count.
- I will apply a “same breath” rule to retractions, anything contradicted in the same tweet or interview answer doesn’t count, but after that walkbacks and retractions don’t matter.
- For a speech any retraction in the same speech counts, but not after taking questions.