Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 07:45 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 97.1%
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21
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
28. Feb. 26, 20:16 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
will trump be assasinated in US?
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon spend a night in jail by EOY 2026 if Trump loses, or not if Trump wins?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is assassinated (killed by an intentional act of violence) at any point during the calendar year 2026.
- Resolution will be based on confirmation from major news outlets and official sources.
- The market resolves NO if Trump survives the entire year 2026 without being assassinated.
- Trump survived assassination attempts in Butler, Pennsylvania in July 2024 and West Palm Beach, Florida two months later, with the second attacker sentenced to life in prison.
- A deadly confrontation at Mar-a-Lago in February 2026 represents the latest in a string of high-profile security incidents, with former Secret Service officials noting Trump is "the most threatened president in the history of the U.S." Recent attacks have been characterized as "super low-tech," with lone actors posing particular challenges to presidential protection.
