Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 97.1%
Prognostiker
21
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 28 Minuten
28. Feb. 26, 20:16 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
will trump be assasinated in US?
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump issue a blanket pardon for administration staff?
KalshiWill there be a Assassination attempt on Elon Musks life between now and the mid terms of 2026.
Manifold MarketsWill a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?
PolymarketWill Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is assassinated (killed by an intentional act of violence) at any point during the calendar year 2026.
- Resolution will be based on confirmation from major news outlets and official sources.
- The market resolves NO if Trump survives the entire year 2026 without being assassinated.
- Trump survived assassination attempts in Butler, Pennsylvania in July 2024 and West Palm Beach, Florida two months later, with the second attacker sentenced to life in prison.
- A deadly confrontation at Mar-a-Lago in February 2026 represents the latest in a string of high-profile security incidents, with former Secret Service officials noting Trump is "the most threatened president in the history of the U.S." Recent attacks have been characterized as "super low-tech," with lone actors posing particular challenges to presidential protection.