Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?
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Daten vom 08.09.2026, 21:07 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
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Will there be a year without polio before 2030?
KalshiWill there be a case of paralysis or death attributed to polio in the USA before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill New World screwworm (maggots that eat animals alive) be effectively eradicated from the wild by 2030?
Manifold MarketsCyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
KalshiHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiTotal cases of measles reported in US during 2026
Manifold MarketsRegeln
By default I will use the numbers provided by the GPEI.
- Note that this is not equivalent to polio eradication by 2030 - we can have a year without cases either by skipping years or through poor observation, for instance.
- It is also specifically wild polio - I am not counting vaccine derived polio cases.
- At market creation the number for 2023 is 10.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 54% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030? entschieden?
- Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030? soll am 2. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: By default I will use the numbers provided by the GPEI.