Will there be a head of state and/or government of a G20 country with a background in Effective Altrusim (EA) by 2035?
One-OffPolitik8J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 01:39 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 67.5%
Nein 67.5%Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert11. Dez. 23, 00:49 UTC1. Jan. 35, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any serving head of state/government of a UN-recognised country become vegan by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the first to have a transgender head of state or government?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
PolymarketWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 5 or more assassinations/executions of heads of state/government in the 2020s?
Manifold MarketsAfD in a German state government?
KalshiRegeln
To qualify the person would need to have worked for/in an EA aligned organisation or have been somehow directly involved with EA orgs/discussion groups for at least 6 continuous months at some point in their lives.
- This also includes involvement at university/school level.
- Proof of this could simply be statements made by the person which explicitly indicate their involvement (over 6 months), ie wouldn't necessarily have to be an employement contract etc
- I will exclude monarchs in constitutional monarchies eg the British royals will not be taken into consideration