KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 57%
Marktqualitat
55 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
595,5 €
Liquidität
661,4 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
40.0% / 44.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
24. Aug. 26, 21:00 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
PolymarketWhich parties will be in the next Berlin state government?
PolymarketWill any serving head of state/government of a UN-recognised country become vegan by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
PolymarketRegeln
If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCBBCThe GuardianABC News AustraliaSouth China Morning PostCBCThe VergeAgence France-Presse
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- The Alternative fuer Deutschland is part of a German state government only if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position, including a junior ministerial or equivalent executive role, in that state's government.
- The test applies at any time after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, whether the position is taken at the formation of a new state government or through a mid-term appointment or reshuffle A caretaker or acting administration carried over from a previous government does NOT count An arrangement in which the party supports a minority government without holding any such position does NOT count A coalition agreement that has been signed but under which no government has yet taken office does NOT count
Vergleich von Prognosequellen
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für AfD in a German state government in 2026??
- Kalshi bewertet No mit 57% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird AfD in a German state government in 2026? entschieden?
- AfD in a German state government in 2026? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird AfD in a German state government in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Wo wird AfD in a German state government in 2026? außerdem gelistet?
- Dieselbe Frage wird auch auf Polymarket gelistet.