Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the world become a global far-right dictatorship regime in the 21st century??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 86.5% (Stand: 29. Oktober 2026).

Will the world become a global far-right dictatorship regime in the 21st century?

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Nein 86.5%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 47 Minuten

Verzogert

5. Okt. 26, 18:33 UTC31. Dez. 00, 11:00 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

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Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point prior to January 1, 2100, the world transitions into what can objectively be classified as a global far-right dictatorship regime.
For this market to resolve to YES, the following two conditions must be met simultaneously:
Global Autocratic Dominance: According to the annual Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index or the V-Dem Institute Democracy Report, at least 75% of the world's population lives in countries classified as "Authoritarian Regimes" (EIU) or "Autocracies" (V-Dem, including both closed and electoral autocracies).
Far-Right Hegemony: At least three of the following five major global powers/blocs must simultaneously be ruled by governments classified as "far-right," "ultranationalist," "right-wing populist," or "illiberal right" by a consensus of reputable academic trackers (such as the V-Party Dataset) or mainstream political science consensus:
The United States