Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseFully fair 65%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
34
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet8. Nov. 24, 03:42 UTC1. Jan. 27, 06:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Free & Fair Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsThe 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair
Manifold MarketsIsrael holds free and fair election in 2026?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRegeln
This market depends on the opinions of international election observers like the OSCE and historically-friendly governments to the US, like those of Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and the like.
- (The claims of countries generally considered geopolitical adversaries, like China or Russia, won't matter for the purposes of this market.)
- This market resolves to "the named outcome" if:
- More than 3/4 of election observers characterize the US federal elections of 2026 as fundamentally free and fair, at least to the same extent as the elections of 2020, 2022, and 2024.
- An objection like the electoral college or the non-proportionality of Senate representation will not prevent the market from resolving "yes", any objection must be unique to the 2026 election.
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 606,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 721.045,7 €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 411.228,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Fully fair mit 65% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026? entschieden?
- Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the US have free and fair federal elections in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market depends on the opinions of international election observers like the OSCE and historically-friendly governments to the US, like those of Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and the like.