Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 67.1%
Prognostiker
22
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet17. März 25, 19:17 UTC2. Dez. 26, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?
Manifold MarketsFree & Fair Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIsrael holds free and fair election in 2026?
Manifold MarketsGuatemalan Congressional election winner?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegeln
Obviously subjective.
- Any significant restrictions on 2026 voting (e.g., all voting must be in person) will result in this being resolved NO.
- Update 2025-10-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve NO if:
- Representatives-elect are not sworn in to Congress
- An entire state delegation is considered invalid
- Any situation similar to the Representative-elect Adelita Grijalva case occurs
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 606,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 721.045,7 €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 411.228,9 €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 67% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair entschieden?
- The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair soll am 2. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird The 2026 US Congressional election will be free and fair abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Obviously subjective.