Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 59.4%
Prognostiker
7
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet5. Aug. 25, 16:15 UTC6. Jan. 29, 17:08 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
KalshiWhat will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
KalshiWill DeSantis have a role in Trump’s administration?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trump administration defy any SCOTUS ruling before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsCourt packing during Trump administration?
Manifold MarketsWho will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves Yes if the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 is still publishing data when Donald Trump leaves office, No otherwise.
- At the time when Trump leaves office, I will check https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/OCO2_L2_Fwd_FP_11.2/summary?keywords=oco2%20v11.2 for recently published data, or look at another URL if that one is down and commenters suggest that the observatory is still publishing data at a different URL.
- If the OCO2 crashes into the atmosphere, becoming an incandescent trail of plasma and debris, this market may resolve early.
- https://www.npr.org/2025/08/04/nx-s1-5453731/nasa-carbon-dioxide-satellite-mission-threatened
Offene Märkte
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 695.731,8 €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 294.676,9 €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 54,7 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 291.319,2 €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 survive the Trump administration??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 59% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 survive the Trump administration? entschieden?
- Will the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 survive the Trump administration? soll am 6. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 survive the Trump administration? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves Yes if the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 is still publishing data when Donald Trump leaves office, No otherwise.