Will the Israeli elections result in government formation?
PolitikOne-OffSchachWahlNaher OstenSport7Mon
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 56%
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Veraltet18. Juli 26, 22:35 UTC31. Mai 27, 22:59 UTC
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How many Israeli elections until a government forms?
KalshiWhich parties will be in the next Israeli government?
PolymarketNext Israeli Minister of Finance?
PolymarketNext Israeli Minister of Justice?
PolymarketNext Israeli Minister of Defense?
PolymarketWill Palestinian-led parties vote to establish or join Israel's next government?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to YES if, following the Israeli legislative election scheduled for October 27, 2026, a new government successfully receives a vote of confidence in the Knesset (requiring at least 61 votes) and is sworn in.
- The market resolves to NO if the Knesset is dissolved and new snap elections are officially triggered without a government being successfully formed, or if no new government has won a vote of confidence and been sworn in by June 1, 2027.
- If the October 27, 2026 election is postponed, the resolution timeline will be extended accordingly.
- If the election is canceled or does not occur by June 1, 2027, the market will resolve N/A (this is highly unlikely).
- Current polling shows a highly fragmented electorate, raising the possibility of a coalition deadlock: