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Daten vom 25.10.2026, 11:35 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 54.8%
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19
Fragetyp
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Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet11. Dez. 22, 06:03 UTC11. Nov. 32, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill AI get IMO Gold by 2025/Wipe out Humanity by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?
Manifold MarketsTime between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Manifold MarketsWhen will a freely available LLM achieve IMO gold?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
KalshiRegeln
This question resolves after an AI first gets IMO Gold, when a paper or preprint is first published describing the functioning of the algorithm.
- It resolves YES if that paper cites the paper "A general reinforcement learning algorithm that masters chess, shogi, and Go through self-play", by Silver et al.
- I will default to whatever version of the paper has been most recently released two weeks after the announcement of the achievement of the gold medal.
- Close date updated to 2032-11-11 3:59 pm
