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KalshiRegeln
Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?
- IFT-1 and IFT-2 do not qualify, so the count has not started yet.
- Future "test launches" will be counted or not based on whether they carried a payload intended for some useful application.
- (The Falcon Heavy test launch would not be included under this definition.) Cargo, crew, and propellant cargo for refueling missions will all be included.
- Accidents resulting in complete loss of payload during pre-launch operations (eg AMOS-6) will count as failures for this count.
- If the SpaceX Starship is retired before this question resolves, it will resolve based on whether the success rate at retirement is >= 99%.
Offene Märkte
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 944.111,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 721.811,5 €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 620.000,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 536.049,8 €
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- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 514.924,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 496.890,6 €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 60% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? entschieden?
- Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? soll am 2. Januar 2032 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?