Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will President Trump make a major Gaffe During the Mid terms?

Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 54.8% (Stand: 9. Oktober 2026).

Will President Trump make a major Gaffe During the Mid terms

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriert

Aktuelle Community-Prognose

Ja 54.8%

Prognostiker

Fragetyp

binary

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden

Veraltet

6. Okt. 26, 00:19 UTC3. Nov. 26, 23:59 UTC

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Regeln

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, between October 6, 2026, and the end of Midterm Election Day on November 3, 2026 (Eastern Time), President Donald Trump makes a verbal, physical, or behavioral mistake during a public appearance, rally, interview, or official event that is widely characterized as a "gaffe," "blunder," or "slip-up" by mainstream media.
To ensure an objective resolution, the following criteria apply:
Media Consensus: The event must be described as a "gaffe," "blunder," "slip-up," or synonymous term in the headlines or lead paragraphs of at least three publications within 72 hours of its occurrence.
Community Poll Fallback: If there is a dispute or ambiguity about whether an event meets these criteria, the market creator will launch a Manifold community poll.
The market will resolve to YES if 51% or more of the voters in the poll agree that a major gaffe occurred, and NO otherwise.