Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊
One-OffPolitik13JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 07:45 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 71.4%
Prognostiker
27
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet13. Apr. 24, 18:53 UTC1. Jan. 40, 12:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will prediction markets be formally blocked in Florida before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson?
Manifold MarketsWill prediction markets be used to allocate UKRI funding before 2040?
Manifold MarketsAGREE or DISAGREE: Prediction markets need oracles that aren’t mainstream media
Manifold MarketsLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItRegeln
will need to be in a nation, state, municipality etc. with over 1 Million residents
- "formally" meaning it is explicitly part of the political system for policymakers to consult prediction markets (e.g. explicit much like the political system in the US explicitly requires a certain number of votes in the senate for a law to be passed)
- e.g. a central bank deciding whether to raise or lower interest rates can, much like they use macroeconomic indicators, consult prediction markets -- and are explicitly allowed to do so
- It cannot be a pilot program / small-scale test
