Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 07:03 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 67.5%
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet23. Feb. 26, 08:02 UTC6. Nov. 28, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump be excommunicated by Pope Leo XIV in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Pope Leo XIV shake hand with President Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump meet with Pope Leo in 2026?
PredictItWill Pope Leo XIV visit first the U.S. or Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Pope Leo XIV publicly criticizes JD Vance by name before the 2028 election.
- Resolution requires a direct, named reference to Vance in a papal statement, homily, letter, or official Vatican communication.
- The criticism must occur before November 5, 2028.
- Resolution sources include official Vatican statements at https://www.vatican.va, papal homilies, and major news outlets reporting on papal statements.
- Pope Leo XIV (born Robert Francis Prevost) is the first pope to have been born in the United States, elected in May 2025.
