Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 98.7%
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Stunden
Veraltet5. Jan. 26, 15:42 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Who lands on the Moon next?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX be nationalized by EoY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX announce any sort of deal with Russia or China before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill Musk deposit SpaceX shares into 10M Trump Accounts?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if humans successfully fly to the Moon (i.e., travel to lunar orbit or land on the lunar surface) before January 1, 2040.
- This includes crewed missions that orbit the Moon or land on it.
- Resolution will be confirmed via official announcements from space agencies (NASA, ESA, CNSA, etc.) or credible news reports from major outlets covering the mission.
- Artemis II is the first crewed mission to the vicinity of the Moon since Apollo 17 in 1972.
- Launch is scheduled for no earlier than February 5, 2026, with the 10-day mission carrying four astronauts on a free-return trajectory around the Moon and back to Earth.
