Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 59%
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 19 Stunden
Veraltet21. Dez. 25, 12:36 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
By when will New Glenn first launch with 9 engines?
Manifold MarketsBy when will New Glenn next launch?
Manifold MarketsBlue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
PolymarketBy when will New Glenn 5 launch?
Manifold MarketsHow many times will New Glenn launch in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if New Glenn completes more orbital launches than Falcon 9 during the calendar year 2030.
- The count includes all orbital-class launches by each rocket, regardless of mission type or outcome (successful or failed launches both count).
- Considerations
- New Glenn is a newly operational rocket with only two flights as of December 2025, while Falcon 9 is a mature vehicle with an established high launch cadence.
- SpaceX's Falcon 9 growth may be reaching an end as it transitions launches to Starship, with 2025 and 2026 anticipated to be the highest Falcon launch rates.
