Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?
One-OffSociety & Culture3MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 64.9%
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet17. Feb. 26, 18:14 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
How long will it be until Candace Owen’s releases the Egyptian plane timeline? (From time of post)
Manifold MarketsHow many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiBozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026
KalshiRegeln
So far, 2026 has been quite deadly in terms of rail accidents, but not particularly deadly in terms of aviation accidents.
- Will more people die in plane crashes than train crashes by the end of this year?
- This market will resolve YES if more people die in aviation accidents, NO if more people die in rail accidents.
- I will judge the number of deaths by adding up the number of deaths occurring before midnight local time on 01/01/27 on both of the wikipedia lists linked below.
- I'll do this sometime in January in order to allow the lists to update with accurate figures if accidents occurred right at the end of the year.
- Crashes can refer to any kind of accident involving planes/helicopters and trains/trams/metros, including people struck by debris from incidents or similar.
Offene Märkte
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt30.3%
- <40-5.5pt12.1%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28.855,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 25.306,6 €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6760,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5772,3 €
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane95%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Tariff86%
+13 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 6133 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5231,4 €
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 18.129,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 989,4 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15.357,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 952,4 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 136.182,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 247 €
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 65% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026? entschieden?
- Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: So far, 2026 has been quite deadly in terms of rail accidents, but not particularly deadly in terms of aviation accidents.